The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It

Additional The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It Information

January 2010 Update
1. First, read the prior year update below.
2. The January 2009 update predicting a 2009 rally of perhaps 30% from a new low of around 7000 did happen . . . and more!
3. With NASDAQ now added from 1985 onwards to reflect its then significant percentage of the total market s capitalization (see chart on books ws at . . thegreatbustahead . . ), the correlation with the demographic becomes even more stunning than just the DJIA alone.
4. The 2007-09 deviation from the demographic is a manmade short-term (at this point) deviation. As described in the book, short-term is 1-3 years. We may yet recover in 2010 and start to follow the demographic line again.
5. However, as per the book, we have now entered the period of great danger from 2010 onwards. The demographics based depression could begin as early as 2010. This is based on the fact that if a single age of 49 is used for the book s charts, rather than the five year groupings, the demographic peaks in 2010 (Chart 8 in the book) rather than 2012. So, we may now continue to climb the curve to 2012 (which is an actual DJIA peak of about 20K), OR see the crash begin at any time from now onwards.
6. Riding this last period is highly dangerous and must be done with great care as you will be embarking upon brinkmanship. If the projected DJIA returns to following the demographic a very enticing potential DJIA gain of about 90% by 2012 is in the offing. After 2009 s 60%+ rally from the low, 90% over the next 3 years does seem very possible but, as we know, that rally was NOT at all reflective of a recovery in the economy. The sub-prime legacy and further residential and growing commercial foreclosures may drag us down yet again in 2010/11.
7. Per the book s 2002 warning, I still recommend being out of all stock based investments no later than 2010. Then wait for long bonds to peak around 6% (probably in 2010/11). Then invest in medium to long term treasuries. These bonds should then offer a substantial gain when interest rates crash again in the first year or two of the depression.

January 2009 Update:
1. 2008 was the victim of a self inflicted sub-prime financial crisis. This has nothing to do with the demographics based massive depression that is yet to come, as described in the book. The sub-prime consequences are however very similar though mild so far compared to what is coming our way. The book clearly spelled out that along the way unpredictable short-term (1 to 3 years) disruptive events could happen. The sub-prime crisis is just that. It should be regarded as the warmer upper or hors d'oeuvre for the big one that is now rapidly closing in on us all.
2. It is unknown at this point whether the sub-prime based crisis will drag on beyond 2009 and then blend into the demographics based massive decline which could begin as early as 2009-10.
3. There is the strong possibility that we will see an interim recovery manifested as a rally in 2009 of perhaps 30% on the Dow after a new low of around 7,000. The only certainty is that historically in the long-term the Dow always returns to the demographic. The immutable demographic remains in a very strong upswing as it moves toward its 2012 peak before crashing. Also waiting in the wings are trillions of dollars earning very little in money market funds.

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What Customers Say About The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It:

I've recommended this book to most of my friends. I've read it twice and although the beginning is a little redundant the rest of the book is handy. I now understanding how a society is affected by the retirement, baby booms, immigration, etc. Second half of book is easy to read and keeps the reader interested

A very good oversight of how things have happened considering this was written in 2002. The prediction has been correct so far, therefore by deduction, up to 2020 is not going to be a good prospect. It will be a long struggle. The book content and current situation does prompt a lot uncomfortable questions about motives in the banking an government sector controls up to now and for the future.

Great breakdown to the financial crisis and the mess in which we are today, just wish I read it earlier.

This book is a small 55 page (large type) book that can be read in about thirty minutes. Perhaps his dates were off by a few years but it would be hard to predict Fed intervention (which is probably just accelerating the dates). The author uses lots of graphs and census data to support his theory that the US economy simply follows the demographics of the 45 -54 year old US population. Although the concept sounds strange at first, he does a good job of supporting his claims with data.The most interesting thing about the book is that it was written in 2002 and called for a market peak around the 2012 period and then a huge fall off and then all sorts of h3ll, death, and destruction. I think it would be hard to forecast 10 years in the future and anticipate the crazy response from the Fed and Congress. Nevertheless, the book was thought provoking and adds another good data point to the warnings from many knowledgeable types that we are in for a rocky road ahead.

Gold will most likely spike above $1,200 by 2010, but gold and silver is not mentioned as a hedge in the book.Don't get me wrong, demographics DO play a major role in the cycles of an economy, but the great bust needs more than just people getting old, it needs a credit bubble. We now have a pure fiat currency, which can only create money out of worthless paper.

It uses lots of facts in layman's terms to support its demographic argument. This book attempts to use demographics to explain the boom and busts of the past.

While this country was on a gold standard prior to 1933, previous depressions were caused by banks lending out credit when they had no real money to back it up.Today I think the author is right, but for the wrong reasons. While a lot of the book is very thought provoking, it fails to take into account the number one reason for deep recessions and depressions - and that is easy credit based on funny money (e.g.: Federal Reserve Notes - yes the stuff we use today).

The bank note credit squeeze of 1837, the Long Depression of the 1890's, and the Great Depression of the 1930's were all preceded by a credit boom and market bubbles created through the use of fake money (money not backed by an asset). Hyperinflation will be the solution to the deflation the FED is currently trying to fight.

Unfortunately the FED created the bubble, so the authors are probably dead right - just not for the right reason.